The Scenario
Most signal services send you a ticker and a direction. That’s not enough to act on: you can’t tell whether it’s a high-probability setup or a lottery ticket, and you can’t check the reasoning.
Thorp signals arrive with the trigger that fired them, the historical hit rate, the risk-to-reward, and — for event-driven signals — the chain of confirmations that had to pass before it was sent. You can disagree with a signal, but you can always see what it was built on.
Try It
What You Get Back
A technical signal, honestly labelled
Your watchlist triggers on its own — you don’t ask for this one:
Bot: BNB on your watchlist just printed a 4H MACD death-cross short signal 👀
🍩 BNB · Short · 4H
Technical trigger
- 4H MACD death cross: DIF −3.524 crosses below DEA −3.3681
- Histogram −0.1559, turning down — short-term bearish
🎯 Entry $586.75 → Target $546.07 (≈ −6.9%)
🛑 Stop $607.09 · R/R ≈ 1:2
📊 30d hit 22.7% · avg −1.3% · 22 trades
→ A low-win-rate, high-payoff “odds-type” setup
[View details] [Short in one tap] [Ignore]
Read the numbers together. A 22.7% hit rate would be damning on its own — but at 1:2 R/R, losing three out of four and winning the fourth still works out. The engine pushes these deliberately and labels them as odds-type rather than dressing them up. A signal that only ever showed you high win rates would be hiding the trades that pay.
An event-driven signal, with its confirmations
Bot: 🗞️ Thorp signal: ZEC news-driven short
Tier 1 — news capture
- Bearish ZEC news detected: security research disclosed a potential protocol vulnerability; social concern building
- News sentiment: 81% negative, spreading fast
Tier 2 — on-chain / order-book validation
- ✅ ZEC perp OI rising + funding turned negative — shorts entering
- ✅ Exchange net inflows rising (potential sell pressure)
Tier 3 — execution & result
- Shorted at $432 → now $415.15 (−3.9%)
- 3x leverage · short unrealized ≈ +11.7%
- TP −8% / SL +5%
🎯 News + on-chain double confirmation passed
⚠️ Bearish news must be cross-verified; size carefully, not financial advice
[View details] [View evidence chain]
Nothing gets pushed on the news alone. The story has to be corroborated by positioning and flow data before it becomes a signal — which is why the tiers are numbered in the message.
Hit rates, average returns, sample sizes, and PnL figures in these examples are sample output from a specific moment, shown to illustrate the format. They are not performance claims or predictions, and a signal clearing the engine’s filter is not a recommendation to take it.
When to Use
- Coins you hold but can’t watch. Put them on the watchlist and let the technical scan run.
- When you want the setup, not the story. Entry, target, stop, and R/R in one message.
- Event-driven trading. News breaks constantly; only some of it shows up in positioning. The double-confirmation filter is the difference.
- Auditing your own read. Ask for the evidence chain and compare it against your reasoning.
Tips
- Judge hit rate and R/R together. Neither number means anything alone. A 70% hit rate at 1:0.3 is a losing system.
- Ask before you act.
"Why did you push that signal?" returns the full chain, including what nearly disqualified it.
- Prune the watchlist. Signal quality drops when the list is long — the engine has more chances to find something marginal.
- Set your own size. One-tap execution still takes your size and leverage. See Risk Controls for caps.
- Skip freely. Ignoring signals is the normal case, not a failure of the system.
