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The Scenario

Large unlocks put supply into a market on a known date. That makes them one of the few genuinely scheduled events in crypto. It also makes them public, so “unlock is coming, therefore short” is not an edge on its own. The edge, if there is one, is in the detail: how big the unlock is relative to float, who receives it, whether those addresses are already moving tokens toward exchanges, and whether price structure is weakening ahead of the date. D0 pulls those together into a thesis you can accept or reject.

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Try It

  • Watch tokens with big upcoming unlocks and analyze short setups
  • Analyze the HOME unlock, how much is coming and is it priced in?

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What You Get Back

You: Watch tokens with big upcoming unlocks and analyze short setups. I see DeFi.app’s $HOME unlocks soon.
D0: 🔓 $HOME unlock-short analysis
Asset: DeFi.app · $HOME, currently $0.0303 · mcap $115.9M
This month’s large unlock
  • ~750M HOME unlocking (≈ $36.9M)
  • ≈ 19.8% of circulating supply, significant sell pressure
  • Nature: early allocation / incentive release
Whales & on-chain moves
  • Watch whether unlock-beneficiary addresses pre-transfer to CEX (sell prep)
  • Holder concentration: top-N share and changes
  • Whether price / volume structure weakens pre-unlock
Short thesis
  • Position into strength pre-unlock (test short on perps if available, else borrow / spot trim)
  • Stop above the unlock-day key resistance
  • ⚠️ The unlock is a known event and may be partly priced in. Sell pressure isn’t guaranteed to hit immediately. Size carefully, not financial advice.
[View unlock calendar] [View evidence chain]
Two lines in that reply do most of the work. The first is the float ratio. 750M tokens sounds like a lot, but the number that decides whether it matters is the share of circulating supply, here about 19.8%. A large unlock into a large float is often a non-event. The second is the priced-in warning. Unlock dates sit on public calendars, so the market has had weeks to position. D0 flags this so the setup doesn’t read as free money. Plenty of unlocks are sold before the date and rally on it.
Unlock sizes, prices, and market caps in this example are a snapshot from one moment. A scheduled unlock is public information and may already be reflected in price. Sell pressure is not guaranteed to arrive on the unlock date, or at all. Shorting into a known event can go badly in both directions.

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When to Use

  • Ahead of a scheduled unlock for a token you already follow.
  • To screen for candidates: ask for upcoming unlocks by float ratio rather than by absolute size.
  • To check a position you already hold. If you’re long, an incoming unlock is worth knowing about before it lands.
  • After the unlock, to ask whether the supply actually moved. Sometimes recipients hold, and that’s information too.

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Tips

  • Ask for the share of circulating supply rather than the token count. That is the number that decides whether this matters.
  • Follow the beneficiary addresses. Tokens moving to a CEX before the date is the strongest tell available.
  • Check whether the token is shortable. Not every small-cap has a perp market, and D0 will suggest borrow or spot alternatives.
  • Set the stop before you enter. Unlock trades that go wrong go wrong fast, and the level above unlock-day resistance is the natural invalidation.
  • Combine with a monitor. Ask D0 to watch the beneficiary addresses and ping you if they move; see Scheduled Automations.