The Scenario
Large unlocks put supply into a market on a known date. That’s one of the few genuinely scheduled events in crypto — but it’s also public, which means “unlock is coming, therefore short” is not an edge on its own.
The edge, if there is one, is in the detail: how big the unlock is relative to float, who receives it, whether those addresses are already moving tokens toward exchanges, and whether price structure is weakening ahead of the date. Your bot pulls those together into a thesis you can accept or reject.
Try It
What You Get Back
You: Watch tokens with big upcoming unlocks and analyze short setups. I see DeFi.app’s $HOME unlocks soon.
Bot: 🔓 $HOME unlock-short analysis
Asset: DeFi.app · $HOME — currently $0.0303 · mcap $115.9M
This month’s large unlock
- ~750M HOME unlocking (≈ $36.9M)
- ≈ 19.8% of circulating supply — significant sell pressure
- Nature: early allocation / incentive release
Whales & on-chain moves
- Watch whether unlock-beneficiary addresses pre-transfer to CEX (sell prep)
- Holder concentration: top-N share and changes
- Whether price / volume structure weakens pre-unlock
Short thesis
- Position into strength pre-unlock (test short on perps if available, else borrow / spot trim)
- Stop above the unlock-day key resistance
- ⚠️ The unlock is a known event and may be partly priced in — sell pressure isn’t guaranteed to hit immediately. Size carefully, not financial advice.
[View unlock calendar] [View evidence chain]
Two things in that reply do the real work.
The float ratio. 750M tokens sounds like a lot; ~19.8% of circulating supply is what actually matters. A large unlock into a large float is often a non-event.
The priced-in warning. Unlock dates are on public calendars, so the market has had weeks to position. The bot flags this rather than letting the setup read as free money — plenty of unlocks are sold before the date and rally on it.
Unlock sizes, prices, and market caps in this example are a snapshot from one moment. A scheduled unlock is public information and may already be reflected in price. Sell pressure is not guaranteed to arrive on the unlock date, or at all — shorting into a known event can go badly in both directions.
When to Use
- Ahead of a scheduled unlock for a token you already follow.
- Screening for candidates. Ask for upcoming unlocks by float ratio rather than by absolute size.
- Checking a position you already hold. If you’re long, an incoming unlock is worth knowing about before it lands.
- Post-unlock. Ask whether the supply actually moved — sometimes recipients hold, and that’s information too.
Tips
- Ask for the ratio, not the token count. “How much of circulating supply” is the number that decides whether this matters.
- Follow the beneficiary addresses. Tokens moving to a CEX before the date is the strongest tell available.
- Check whether it’s shortable. Not every small-cap has a perp market. The bot will suggest borrow or spot alternatives.
- Set the stop before you enter. Unlock trades that go wrong go wrong fast — the level above unlock-day resistance is the natural invalidation.
- Combine with a monitor. Ask the bot to watch the beneficiary addresses and ping you if they move — see Scheduled Automations.
