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The Scenario

Prediction market prices are probabilities. That makes them comparable to other probability sources: CME FedWatch for rate decisions, options-implied odds, polling aggregates. When two sources disagree, that gap is the trade. Finding the gap by hand means checking a lot of markets that turn out to be efficiently priced. D0 scans, compares, and reports the ones worth your attention. Often the answer is that there’s nothing here.

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Try It

  • Any mispricing opportunities on Polymarket? I mostly care about macro events
  • Build me a balance-of-power basket for the 2026 midterms on Polymarket

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What You Get Back

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A scan that tells you to skip

You: Any mispricing opportunities on Polymarket? I mostly care about macro-related ones.
D0: 🔍 Scanning Polymarket macro events for mispricing…
🎯 This round’s focus: Fed Decision in June 2026
  • Polymarket “No change in June”: 99.5¢ (implied 99.5%)
  • “Cut 25bp” 0.25¢ · “Cut 50bp+” 0.15¢
  • CME FedWatch: also ~99% hold
  • Gap: < 1 percentage point
24h volume: $4.4M, ample liquidity
Conclusion: fully priced, tightly aligned with CME, no arbitrage room. Skip, keep scanning other events.
[Keep scanning] [View other gaps]
This is the most common outcome, and D0 reports it as is instead of inventing an edge.

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A basket, with the uncovered tail spelled out

You: The 2026 midterms are coming up. I want to build a balance-of-power basket on Polymarket, help me allocate.
D0: 🗳️ Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Live pricing (Polymarket)
  • Dems Senate+House (sweep): 43.5¢
  • GOP Senate / Dem House (split): 34.5¢
  • GOP Senate+House (sweep): 17.5¢
  • Dem Senate / GOP House: 1.95¢
Suggested basket: covers the two most likely scenarios (~78%)
  • Buy “Dem sweep” $300 @ 43.5¢ → redeems ~$690 if hit
  • Buy “Split: GOP Senate + Dem House” $300 @ 34.5¢ → redeems ~$870 if hit
  • Total in $600; the two scenarios are mutually exclusive: hit either and you profit
  • ⚠️ Tail (GOP sweep 17.5% / other ~2%) uncovered → that scenario loses the full $600
Captures ~78% of probability mass, but not risk-free: the ~20% tail still means a full loss.
[View market] [Adjust allocation]
The tail line matters most. “Covers 78% of outcomes” reads like a high-probability trade; “the other 20% loses everything you put in” is the same fact, stated so you can price it.
Prices, implied probabilities, and payout figures in these examples are a snapshot from one moment and move constantly. Covering most of the probability mass is not the same as a low-risk position: an uncovered tail is a total loss on the amount staked.

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When to Use

  • Before a scheduled macro event (Fed decisions, CPI prints, elections), anywhere a second probability source exists to compare against.
  • Hedging a directional book: an event basket can offset exposure that crypto positions can’t.
  • When you have a view but no clean instrument, since prediction markets price things perps don’t.
  • Checking your own conviction: if you think an outcome is 70% and the market says 43%, one of you is wrong, and it’s worth knowing which.

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Tips

  • Name your comparison source. “Compare against CME FedWatch” or “against the polling average” makes the gap check explicit.
  • Check liquidity. A wide gap in a market doing $20K a day isn’t tradeable, so read the 24h volume D0 reports.
  • Always ask what’s uncovered. If a basket suggestion doesn’t state the tail, ask "what scenario loses everything?"
  • Watch fees. Polymarket trades carry no D0 platform fee; see Fees.
  • Redeem after resolution. Winning positions need redeeming; ask D0 to check for resolved markets you haven’t claimed.