The Scenario
Prediction market prices are probabilities. That makes them comparable to other probability sources — CME FedWatch for rate decisions, options-implied odds, polling aggregates. When two sources disagree, that gap is the trade.
Finding the gap by hand means checking a lot of markets that turn out to be efficiently priced. Your bot scans, compares, and reports the ones worth your attention — including, often, the answer that there’s nothing here.
Try It
What You Get Back
A scan that tells you to skip
You: Any mispricing opportunities on Polymarket? I mostly care about macro-related ones.
Bot: 🔍 Scanning Polymarket macro events for mispricing…
🎯 This round’s focus: Fed Decision in June 2026
- Polymarket “No change in June”: 99.5¢ (implied 99.5%)
- “Cut 25bp” 0.25¢ · “Cut 50bp+” 0.15¢
- CME FedWatch: also ~99% hold
- Gap: < 1 percentage point
24h volume: $4.4M, ample liquidity
Conclusion: fully priced, tightly aligned with CME — no arbitrage room. Skip, keep scanning other events.
[Keep scanning] [View other gaps]
This is the most common honest outcome, and the bot reports it rather than manufacturing an edge. A scanner that always finds something isn’t a scanner.
A basket, with the uncovered tail spelled out
You: The 2026 midterms are coming up. I want to build a balance-of-power basket on Polymarket — help me allocate.
Bot: 🗳️ Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Live pricing (Polymarket)
- Dems Senate+House (sweep): 43.5¢
- GOP Senate / Dem House (split): 34.5¢
- GOP Senate+House (sweep): 17.5¢
- Dem Senate / GOP House: 1.95¢
Suggested basket — covers the two most likely scenarios (~78%)
- Buy “Dem sweep” $300 @ 43.5¢ → redeems ~$690 if hit
- Buy “Split: GOP Senate + Dem House” $300 @ 34.5¢ → redeems ~$870 if hit
- Total in $600; the two scenarios are mutually exclusive — hit either and you profit
- ⚠️ Tail (GOP sweep 17.5% / other ~2%) uncovered → that scenario loses the full $600
Captures ~78% of probability mass, but not risk-free — ~20% tail still means a full loss.
[View market] [Adjust allocation]
The tail line is the important one. “Covers 78% of outcomes” reads like a high-probability trade; “the other 20% loses everything you put in” is the same fact stated so you can actually price it.
Prices, implied probabilities, and payout figures in these examples are a snapshot from one moment and move constantly. Covering most of the probability mass is not the same as a low-risk position — an uncovered tail is a total loss on the amount staked.
When to Use
- Before a scheduled macro event. Fed decisions, CPI prints, elections — anywhere a second probability source exists to compare against.
- Hedging a directional book. An event basket can offset exposure that crypto positions can’t.
- When you have a view but no clean instrument. Prediction markets price things perps don’t.
- Checking your own conviction. If you think an outcome is 70% and the market says 43%, one of you is wrong. Worth knowing which.
Tips
- Name your comparison source. “Compare against CME FedWatch” or “against the polling average” makes the gap check explicit.
- Ask for liquidity. A wide gap in a market doing $20K a day isn’t tradeable. The bot reports 24h volume — read it.
- Always ask what’s uncovered. If a basket suggestion doesn’t state the tail, ask
"what scenario loses everything?"
- Watch fees. Polymarket trades carry no D0 platform fee — see Fees.
- Redeem after resolution. Winning positions need redeeming; ask the bot to check for resolved markets you haven’t claimed.
