> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs-d0.donutbrowser.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Trading Polymarket Events

> Scan prediction markets for mispricing against other sources, build multi-leg baskets around an event, and see the tail risk before you commit.

## The Scenario

Prediction market prices are probabilities. That makes them comparable to other probability sources — CME FedWatch for rate decisions, options-implied odds, polling aggregates. When two sources disagree, that gap is the trade.

Finding the gap by hand means checking a lot of markets that turn out to be efficiently priced. Your bot scans, compares, and reports the ones worth your attention — including, often, the answer that there's nothing here.

## Try It

* [Any mispricing opportunities on Polymarket? I mostly care about macro events](https://t.me/donut_d0_agent_bot?text=Any%20mispricing%20opportunities%20on%20Polymarket%3F%20I%20mostly%20care%20about%20macro%20events)
* [Build me a balance-of-power basket for the 2026 midterms on Polymarket](https://t.me/donut_d0_agent_bot?text=Build%20me%20a%20balance-of-power%20basket%20for%20the%202026%20midterms%20on%20Polymarket)

## What You Get Back

### A scan that tells you to skip

> **You:** Any mispricing opportunities on Polymarket? I mostly care about macro-related ones.

> **Bot:** 🔍 Scanning Polymarket macro events for mispricing...<br />
> 🎯 This round's focus: **Fed Decision in June 2026**
>
> * Polymarket "No change in June": 99.5¢ (implied 99.5%)
> * "Cut 25bp" 0.25¢ · "Cut 50bp+" 0.15¢
> * CME FedWatch: also \~99% hold
> * **Gap: \< 1 percentage point**
>
> 24h volume: \$4.4M, ample liquidity<br />
> **Conclusion:** fully priced, tightly aligned with CME — no arbitrage room. Skip, keep scanning other events.<br />
> \[Keep scanning] \[View other gaps]

This is the most common honest outcome, and the bot reports it rather than manufacturing an edge. A scanner that always finds something isn't a scanner.

### A basket, with the uncovered tail spelled out

> **You:** The 2026 midterms are coming up. I want to build a balance-of-power basket on Polymarket — help me allocate.

> **Bot:** 🗳️ **Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms**<br />
> Live pricing (Polymarket)
>
> * Dems Senate+House (sweep): 43.5¢
> * GOP Senate / Dem House (split): 34.5¢
> * GOP Senate+House (sweep): 17.5¢
> * Dem Senate / GOP House: 1.95¢
>
> **Suggested basket** — covers the two most likely scenarios (\~78%)
>
> * Buy "Dem sweep" \$300 @ 43.5¢ → redeems \~\$690 if hit
> * Buy "Split: GOP Senate + Dem House" \$300 @ 34.5¢ → redeems \~\$870 if hit
> * Total in \$600; the two scenarios are mutually exclusive — hit either and you profit
> * ⚠️ Tail (GOP sweep 17.5% / other \~2%) uncovered → that scenario loses the full \$600
>
> Captures \~78% of probability mass, but not risk-free — \~20% tail still means a full loss.<br />
> \[View market] \[Adjust allocation]

The tail line is the important one. "Covers 78% of outcomes" reads like a high-probability trade; "the other 20% loses everything you put in" is the same fact stated so you can actually price it.

<Warning>
  Prices, implied probabilities, and payout figures in these examples are a snapshot from one moment and move constantly. Covering most of the probability mass is not the same as a low-risk position — an uncovered tail is a total loss on the amount staked.
</Warning>

## When to Use

* **Before a scheduled macro event.** Fed decisions, CPI prints, elections — anywhere a second probability source exists to compare against.
* **Hedging a directional book.** An event basket can offset exposure that crypto positions can't.
* **When you have a view but no clean instrument.** Prediction markets price things perps don't.
* **Checking your own conviction.** If you think an outcome is 70% and the market says 43%, one of you is wrong. Worth knowing which.

## Tips

* **Name your comparison source.** "Compare against CME FedWatch" or "against the polling average" makes the gap check explicit.
* **Ask for liquidity.** A wide gap in a market doing \$20K a day isn't tradeable. The bot reports 24h volume — read it.
* **Always ask what's uncovered.** If a basket suggestion doesn't state the tail, ask `"what scenario loses everything?"`
* **Watch fees.** Polymarket trades carry no D0 platform fee — see [Fees](/reference/fees).
* **Redeem after resolution.** Winning positions need redeeming; ask the bot to check for resolved markets you haven't claimed.

## Related

* [Prediction Markets](/features/prediction-markets) — supported markets, order types, and redemption
* [Fees](/reference/fees) — what a Polymarket trade actually costs
* [Market Research](/use-cases/market-research) — background research before taking an event view
* [Portfolio Monitor](/use-cases/portfolio-monitor) — event positions alongside the rest of your book